Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.211527 1.280808 1.352807 1.433386 1.521249 1.614374 1.720830
2026-01-11 1.115188 1.214352 1.322061 1.448405 1.593403 1.755642 1.952372
2026-01-18 1.046825 1.162797 1.292604 1.449950 1.637272 1.855421 2.132118
2026-01-25 1.009512 1.140013 1.289807 1.476542 1.706080 1.983112 2.349294
2026-02-01 0.950218 1.086089 1.244969 1.447228 1.701980 2.018081 2.449820
2026-02-08 0.893495 1.031219 1.194702 1.406426 1.678541 2.024163 2.509684
2026-02-15 0.856889 0.998326 1.168690 1.393090 1.687363 2.070058 2.623437
2026-02-22 0.830920 0.976845 1.155110 1.393815 1.713119 2.138273 2.771401
2026-03-01 0.797538 0.944372 1.125783 1.371955 1.706630 2.161032 2.854672
2026-03-08 0.759860 0.904862 1.085614 1.333502 1.674919 2.145863 2.879523
2026-03-15 0.737837 0.884406 1.069009 1.325327 1.683806 2.187683 2.992147
2026-03-22 0.729413 0.880986 1.074209 1.346431 1.734147 2.291609 3.208742
2026-03-29 0.708396 0.861105 1.057775 1.338314 1.744196 2.339428 3.345134
2026-04-05 0.696753 0.853170 1.056983 1.351912 1.786490 2.438861 3.576962
2026-04-12 0.681545 0.839804 1.048106 1.353307 1.810301 2.510710 3.768543
2026-04-19 0.675312 0.838148 1.054980 1.377316 1.869161 2.641844 4.079139
2026-04-26 0.652341 0.812938 1.028198 1.350848 1.848539 2.641712 4.148094
2026-05-03 0.627180 0.784011 0.995282 1.313966 1.809669 2.608547 4.150755
2026-05-10 0.611469 0.767647 0.979506 1.301899 1.809267 2.639899 4.281145
2026-05-17 0.600669 0.757736 0.972482 1.302555 1.829014 2.706724 4.489044
2026-05-24 0.584053 0.739239 0.952572 1.282767 1.814391 2.712203 4.571455
2026-05-31 0.563574 0.714838 0.923503 1.247921 1.773411 2.668294 4.545394
2026-06-07 0.552292 0.703130 0.912475 1.240507 1.777539 2.705697 4.697827